If you’ve been scouring the Josh Palmer game log recently, you probably noticed a weird trend. On paper, the 2025 season looks like a massive step back. After signing a three-year, $29 million deal with the Buffalo Bills, the expectations were through the roof. Most people figured he’d step into that Stefon Diggs-sized vacuum and become a target monster for Josh Allen.
Instead, we got a year defined by the "DNP" tag and a nagging ankle injury that just wouldn't quit. Honestly, looking at the raw box scores from 2024 to 2025 is like watching two different players. In Los Angeles, he was the guy Justin Herbert trusted when everyone else was hurt. In Buffalo, he’s been more of a "what if" than a "game-changer."
The 2025 Buffalo Bills Reality Check
Let’s get real about the numbers. Palmer finished the 2025 regular season with just 22 catches for 303 yards. He didn’t find the end zone once. For a guy getting paid nearly $10 million a year, that’s... well, it’s a tough pill for Bills fans to swallow.
But context matters. Palmer wasn't just "bad." He was hurt.
His season actually started with a bang. In Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens, he hauled in five passes for 61 yards. He looked like the WR2 everyone expected. But that ended up being his season high. He missed five games total—mostly during a crucial mid-season stretch—due to a combination of knee and ankle issues.
"It’s hard to play and getting worse at the same time," Palmer told reporters in December.
That quote basically sums up his entire year. He tried to play through the pain against Atlanta in Week 6 and Houston in Week 12, but it was clear he wasn't the same guy who was ripping off 15 yards per catch with the Chargers.
Breaking Down the 2024 vs. 2025 Josh Palmer Game Log
When you compare his final year in Los Angeles (2024) to his first in Buffalo, the drop-off is jarring. In 2024, Palmer was a model of "doing a lot with a little." He only had 39 catches, but he turned them into 584 yards. That’s a 15-yard average. He was a vertical threat.
In Buffalo, that average dipped slightly to 13.8, but the volume was the real killer.
- 2024 (Chargers): 15 games, 65 targets, 39 catches, 1 TD.
- 2025 (Bills): 12 games, 37 targets, 22 catches, 0 TD.
The target share just wasn't there. Whether it was the lack of chemistry with Josh Allen or the fact that Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid became the primary reads, Palmer was often the third or fourth option even when he was healthy enough to run routes.
Why the Ankle Injury Changed Everything
If you’re a fantasy manager or just a Bills fan looking at the Josh Palmer game log for Week 18, you might have felt a glimmer of hope. He played a season-high 84% of the snaps against the New York Jets. He was out there. He was running the routes.
But he caught one pass for one yard.
That was a massive red flag. Even though he was physically on the field, the explosiveness wasn't there. This culminated in the worst possible news for Buffalo’s playoff run: on January 11, 2026, the Bills officially placed Palmer on Injured Reserve. He’s out for the postseason. The ankle finally won.
The Keon Coleman Factor
With Palmer out, the spotlight shifts to second-year receiver Keon Coleman. It’s been a weird year for Coleman too—he’s been a healthy scratch for disciplinary reasons and struggled with consistency. But with Palmer’s 2025 game log officially closed at 303 yards, the Bills are forced to rely on Coleman and guys like Tyrell Shavers to keep the defense honest during the Wild Card matchup against Jacksonville.
It’s a "hodgepodge" receiver room, as some analysts have called it. Aside from Shakir, nobody has really established themselves as a reliable go-to guy.
What We Can Learn from the Targets
If we dig into the situational stats, Palmer was actually quite good on deep balls—when he got them. He had a 45-yard reception this year, proving the speed is still there. Most of his production came when the Bills were trailing by 1 to 8 points. He was a "clutch" possession receiver in small doses.
But you can't build an offense on small doses.
The biggest issue? Red zone presence. In his 70 career games, he only has 10 touchdowns. In 2025, he had zero. For a guy who is 6'1" and known for his body control, he rarely became a factor inside the 20-yard line for Buffalo.
Moving Forward: Is the Contract a Bust?
It’s too early to call the three-year deal a disaster, but 2026 is going to be a "prove it" year for Palmer. He’ll be 26 years old and hopefully coming off a full offseason of actual rest instead of just rehab.
The Bills need him to be the guy who averaged 10.7 yards per catch in L.A. but with the volume of a true starter. Right now, his game log looks more like a depth piece than a $29 million investment.
Actionable Insights for Following Josh Palmer:
- Watch the 2026 Preseason: Since he’s on IR now, his health in August will be the only thing that matters. If he isn't 100% by training camp, Buffalo might look to restructure or move on sooner than expected.
- Track the "Air Yards": Palmer's value is in his depth of target (aDOT). If his 2026 game log shows him catching mostly 5-yard hitches, he’s not being used correctly.
- Monitor the Depth Chart: Keep an eye on whether Buffalo drafts another boundary receiver in the 2026 draft. If they take a WR in the first two rounds, Palmer’s days as a locked-in starter are likely over.
Palmer has the talent—we saw it in 2022 when he had 769 yards. But in the NFL, "availability is the best ability," and right now, Palmer’s game log is a diary of missed opportunities and frustrating setbacks.