You’ve probably seen the headlines or the maps by now. For decades, the New York presidential election results were about as predictable as a late subway train—everyone knew where things were headed, even if the ride was a bit bumpy. But the 2024 numbers? Honestly, they tell a story that’s shaking up a lot of the old political assumptions.
New York didn't flip, obviously. Kamala Harris took the state's 28 electoral votes, finishing with roughly 4.6 million votes (56.3%). Donald Trump brought in about 3.6 million (43.7%). On paper, that's a double-digit win for the Democrats.
But look closer.
The real shocker isn't who won; it's the math behind the margins. In 2020, Joe Biden won New York by 23 points. In 2024, that gap shrank to about 12.6 points. That’s a massive swing. In fact, New York saw the biggest Republican shift of any state in the entire country.
The NYC Shift Nobody Saw Coming
Basically, the "Blue Wall" in New York City started to show some serious cracks. We’re used to seeing the five boroughs go deep, deep blue. And they did—Harris won all of them except Staten Island—but the margins were the worst for a Democrat since 1988.
Take a look at the Bronx and Queens. These aren't exactly GOP strongholds. Yet, Trump managed to swing these areas by more than 20 percentage points compared to four years ago. That is wild. You’ve got neighborhoods in southern Brooklyn and eastern Queens that didn't just move a little; they jumped.
- Queens County: Harris 62.3% vs. Trump 37.7%
- The Bronx: Harris 72.7% vs. Trump 27.3%
- Kings County (Brooklyn): Harris 72% vs. Trump 28%
If you think a 45-point lead in the Bronx sounds dominant, you're right. But remember, Biden won it by over 60 points in 2020. That's a lot of ground lost in a very short time.
Long Island and the Suburbs
If the city was a surprise, the suburbs were a statement. Nassau County, which is usually a battleground that leans slightly blue or purple, flipped red this time around. Trump took it with 52.1% of the vote.
Suffolk County continued its trend as Trump country, giving him a comfortable 10-point lead (55% to 45%). When you combine those with shifts in Orange and Rockland counties, you start to see a ring of red surrounding the city that hasn't been this pronounced in years.
People are debating why this happened. Was it the cost of living? Public safety? The migrant crisis? Honestly, it's likely a mix of all of it hitting at once. In places like Rockland County, the New York presidential election results reflected a 12-point margin for Trump, a clear signal that the suburban "swing" is swinging harder than usual.
Upstate: A Sea of Red with Blue Islands
Upstate New York stayed true to its recent history, mostly. It’s a patchwork of red rural areas and blue college towns or urban centers.
- Erie County (Buffalo): Stayed blue, Harris 54.8%.
- Monroe County (Rochester): Solidly for Harris at 59.5%.
- Onondaga County (Syracuse): Harris 58.6%.
- Albany County: The capital stayed blue at 62.9%.
But then you look at the rural counties. Places like Oswego, Chautauqua, and Oneida were deep red, with Trump pulling 60% or more. The "urban-rural divide" we always hear about on the news? It’s alive and well in the Empire State.
Why the Numbers Matter for 2026 and Beyond
Kinda makes you wonder, right? If New York is getting "redder," does it actually matter if it’s still a blue state?
It matters for down-ballot races. The 2024 cycle showed that Republican momentum in the New York presidential election results helped flip or hold key House seats that determined who controlled Congress.
For the average New Yorker, these results are a bit of a wake-up call. The Democratic party can't just assume the "city vote" will save them every time if those margins keep thinning out. Meanwhile, the GOP has found a way to talk to working-class voters in the outer boroughs and suburbs in a way that’s actually sticking.
Actionable Insights: What to Watch Next
- Track Local Registrations: Keep an eye on party enrollment data in Queens and Nassau. If more people are switching to "Independent" or "Republican," the 2024 shift might not be a fluke.
- Watch the 2026 Governor's Race: This will be the first big test to see if the GOP can turn these presidential margins into a statewide win.
- Analyze Turnout: Total turnout in 2024 was about 62.2%, which was actually down from 2020. Lower turnout often hurts Democrats in NY more than Republicans.
The 2024 results weren't just a win for Harris in New York; they were a warning. The political map is changing, and the old rules about which neighborhoods vote for whom are officially out the window.
Stay informed by checking the certified data at the New York State Board of Elections website if you want to dig into your specific precinct. Understanding how your own neighborhood voted is the first step in seeing the bigger picture of where the state is headed.